TVA Energy plan will swap out coal for nuclear energy
TVA Energy plan will swap out coal for nuclear energy
A 20-year look ahead is based on higher energy density and lower carbon emissions
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) last week published its Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) filing a copy with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The plan will be presented next month to TVA's board of directors.
TVA President Tom Kilgore said in a statement the IRP places greater emphasis on lowering carbon emissions. It emphasizes greater use of nuclear energy, natural gas, renewable energy technologies, and energy efficiency measures by customers. TVA said in the plan its twin objectives "are to lead the nation in improved air quality and increased nuclear production."
Kilgore added that relying on a diverse portfolio of energy sources in the future makes more sense than the utility's past heavy reliance on coal. Kilgore said the new strategy "reduces long-term risks and keeps costs steady and predictable."
TVA has stepped up to the plate for nuclear energy
Bill McCollum, COO at TVA, told the news media last December TVA is part of the U.S. nuclear renaissance. He noted that TVA's Watts Bar 1 in eastern Tennessee went online in 1996 and Watts Bar 2, currently under construction, is expected to enter revenue service in 2013. When it comes online, the $2.5 billion plant will be the first new U.S. reactor to generate electricity in the 21st century.
TVA's Browns Ferry Unit 1 entered service in 2007 after completing an extensive five-year refurbishment. At the April 2011 board of directors meeting TVA will decide whether to proceed with construction of a partially built nuclear reactor at the Bellefonte site in Alabama.
In other nuclear developments, TVA is working with Babcock & Wilcox to develop a 125 MW small modular reactor for the Clinch River site (NY Times 02/13/11). McCallum said that while new large reactors close regional gaps between demand and supply of electricity, the smaller units offer an option for growth if it turns out demand will increase in small increments in specific markets.
How the plan was developed
To get to a complete plan, TVA developed six energy scenarios and then assesses five alternative strategies to arrive at three top ranked options to guide the 20-year plan. The key themes of the new 20-year plan include;
· Nuclear energy overtakes coal as the leading fuel source for generation of electricity. TVA's plan would add 1,150-5,900 MW of new nuclear reactor generating capacity.
· After the completion of Watts Bar 1, another new reactor will enter revenue service between 2018-2022. It could be the completion of the Bellefonte plant or an entirely new reactor such as a Westinghouse AP1000 also planned for the same site.
· TVA will idle, but not decommission, between 2,400 and 4,700 MW of coal fired generation capacity.
· Add 1,500-2,500 MW of wind, solar, and other "renewable energy" technologies
· TVA will continue to use natural gas for peak power requirements especially during the summer when air conditioning drives demand for electricity in the deep south.
Power analysis is at the heart of TVA's plan. It started by forecasting peak demand and overall energy sales for a 20-year period. Based on the demand, TVA then looked at alternatives for generating electricity including contingencies for unknown developments. The "capacity gap" is the donut hole that TVA fills with energy production technologies like nuclear, coal, natural gas, and wind energy.
What the plan is and is not
While the TVA plan articulates a 20-year planning horizon, it is not a set of asset decisions. It is a form of strategic guidance for TVA's top management, but it isn't a set of policy, budget, or engineering decisions. TVA still has to go through formal decision processes for any of its major energy facility investments. TVA has not done a formal financial risk analysis or other forms of due diligence for investments as part of the plan.
Stakeholder involvement
TVA did something unusual for a nuclear energy utility. It conducted wide ranging outreach to communities in its multi-state service area. It add some of its sharpest critics to a Stakeholders Review Group to capture their thinking. The 16 person group met monthly to provide TVA with feedback on IRP assumptions, analyses, and results.
The theory goes that while engagement is not endorsement, communication does help, and it seems to have worked. Criticism from some of the usual green groups of TVA's nuclear energy focus in the plan lacked the usually spear throwing intensity of prior years. They still don't like it, and continue to push for more renewable energy investments, but also appear to recognize it isn't going away just because they say so.
Next steps
TVA's board has major decision facing the utility at the April meeting. The decisions it makes will affect a huge swath of the south central U.S.
The Tennessee Valley Authority, a corporation owned by the U.S. government, provides electricity for 9 million people in parts of seven southeastern states at prices below the national average. TVA, which receives no taxpayer money and makes no profits, also provides flood control, navigation and land management for the Tennessee River system and assists utilities and state and local governments with economic development.
How's that for a plan? Check out the TVA Fact Book for more details.
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